Setting research priorities is a difficult and recurring exercise for scientists. They must decide which investments have the greatest potential to achieve the objectives of the research effort. In this regard, Hypothesis Mapping is used. They must decide which investments have the greatest potential to achieve the goals of the research effort. In this regard, the so-called Hypothesis Mapping is used.
Cognitive, causal and hypothesis maps
The term concept mapping in the evaluation and planning literature refers to a different approach to identifying concepts within a domain and representing their relationships. In this approach, many participants group concepts together, and these results combine to form a more representative individual grouping. The results can also be used to build networks of undirected concepts for further analysis. In this approach, many participants group concepts together, and these results combine to form a more representative individual grouping. The results can also be used to build networks of undirected concepts for further analysis.
Cognitive Map
A cognitive map is a directed network that represents a person’s claims about a limited conceptual domain. The nodes of cognitive maps denote qualitative or quantitative variables, and the links between nodes are typically associated with a sign denoting positive or negative influence. Maps have variable weights in the links between nodes that denote the degree of positive or negative influence between elements and have been used to obtain information on many phenomena, including ecological systems.
Causal Maps
They are similar to cognitive maps, but only contain links that represent statements of causality.
Hypothesis Mapping
We use the term hypothesis mapping to describe a variant of a causal map in which the links between the nodes represent known or hypothetical influences between factors in a research domain. A link from one node to another indicates that there is at least one known or hypothetical way in which the first factor influences the second. All types of links are allowed in hypothesis maps; This includes cycles, such as when a node links to itself or when two nodes link to each other. A link from one node to another indicates that there is at least one known or hypothetical form in which the first factor influences the second. All types of links are allowed in hypothesis maps; this includes cycles, such as when a node links to itself or when two nodes join together.
What is a real hypothesis?
A hypothesis is a tentative statement that proposes a possible explanation for some phenomenon or event. A useful hypothesis is a testable statement, which may include a prediction. It should not be confused with a theory. Theories are general explanations based on a large amount of data. A useful hypothesis is a testable statement, which may include a prediction. It should not be confused with a theory. Theories are general explanations based on a large amount of data.
When are hypotheses used?
The keyword is verifiable. That is, it will perform a test of how two variables could be related. This is when you’re doing a real experiment. You’re testing variables. Usually, a hypothesis is based on some previous observation, such as realizing that in November many trees experience color changes in their leaves and that average daily temperatures are decreasing. Are these two events connected? How?
Any lab procedure you follow without a hypothesis really isn’t an experiment. It’s just an exercise or a demonstration of what is already known.
How are hypotheses written?
Here are some examples:
Chocolate can cause pimples.
Salt in the soil can affect plant growth.
Plant growth can be affected by the color of light.
Bacterial growth can be affected by temperature.
Ultraviolet light can cause skin cancer.
The temperature can cause the leaves to change color.
These are all examples of hypotheses because they use the tentative word “can.” However, its shape is not particularly useful. Using the word “may” does not suggest how it would provide supporting evidence for the hypothesis. If these statements had not been written carefully, they may not have even been hypotheses.
How is Hypothesis Mapping performed?
Hypothesis mapping (HM) is a diagram of the thinking involved in hypothesis research. Generally speaking, at HM we draw box and arrow diagrams that link our main question to hypotheses, elements of evidence, supporting arguments, etc.
This recursive structure can be exploited to determine the best allocation of new research efforts to facilitate the flow of information through the graph.
Information can flow through the graph when it is not obstructed by any particular link and the structure of the map will determine which links are most critical to the flow of information. By optimizing the flow of information through the hypothesis map to gradually increase levels of resource investment, we prioritize links on the map to study
Hypothesis Research
Hypothesis research (HI) tries to determine what is happening in some situation by evaluating various hypotheses or conjectures. The goal is to determine which hypothesis is most likely to be true.
Hypothesis research can affect:
Factual situations: What are the current reserves of Saudi oil?
Causes: What killed the dinosaurs?
Functions or roles: What is the Antikythera mechanism for?
Future Events: How Will the Economy Be Affected by Peak Oil?
Moods: What does the enemy plan to do?
Perpetrators: Who murdered Professor Plum?
Most of the research is based to some extent on hypotheses. The exception is situations where the outcome is predetermined in some way (e.g., impeachment) and the goal of the investigation is simply to accumulate evidence to support that determination.
A related, though subtly different, notion is that of hypothesis-driven research, in which a single hypothesis is selected relatively early in the process, and most of the effort is devoted to substantiating this hypothesis. It is a hypothesis-based investigation with all the attention focused on one conjecture, at least without forcing it to reject it and consider another.
Composition of the Hypothesis Research
Hypothesis research is made up of three main activities.
Generation of hypotheses: to raise hypotheses;
Hypothesis evaluation: evaluate the relative plausibility of hypotheses given the available evidence; and
Hypothesis testing – looking for more evidence.
The HI determines which hypothesis is truest (or most likely to be true) in a given situation. It includes generating suitable sets of hypotheses, hypothesis evaluation (assessing the relative plausibility of hypotheses given the evidence), and hypothesis testing (determining what evidence to obtain to make a proper assessment).
Hypothesis Mapping Features
It is an aid to diagnostic judgment. In a simple tripartite classification of judgments, diagnostic judgment addresses the question What’s going on? (or What will happen?) Diagnostic processes attempt to determine “how things are” based on available or obtainable evidence.
Other questions that help convey what diagnostic judgment is for may be What is happening? What’s the matter? What is the cause? What are they thinking? What is your strategy?
It makes the thinking involved in HI visual and can therefore exploit the massive processing power of our visual systems.
It imposes a structure on the thinking involved in HI, by requiring information to be classified and positioned on the map.
When done in a sophisticated way, it involves the detailed articulation and evaluation of arguments, so it is based on the mapping of arguments. In particular, HM cannot be done with complete rigor without a proper appreciation of the role of co-premises in argument structures.
Advantages of Hypothesis Mapping
When done correctly, it imposes discipline on the HI process. There are rules or guidelines to follow; There is experience to be acquired. HM can be done wrong or it can be done right. Getting it right requires understanding and observing the rules.
Most importantly, it promises to improve the “success rate” in HI, that is, to help you be more accurate more often in the conclusions you draw about what’s going on.
It also helps make the HI process more efficient and rigorous, share the thinking behind HI within a team, and make conclusions more defensible and accountable.
It is a general purpose method. It can be used in almost any domain: medicine, engineering, science, business, etc., etc.
However, HM is particularly relevant for intelligence analysis. HM should be seen as a new addition to the intelligence analyst toolkit.
Competitive Hypothesis Analysis
Competitive hypothesis analysis, abbreviated ACH, is a tool to help judge on important issues that require careful evaluation of alternative explanations or conclusions. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prophetic intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve.
The ACH is an eight-step procedure based on basic knowledge of cognitive psychology, decision analysis and the scientific method. It is an effective and proven process that helps analysts avoid common analytical difficulties. Because of its thoroughness, it is particularly appropriate for controversial issues when analysts want to leave an audit trail to show what they considered and how they arrived at their judgment.
Hypothesis Mapping and Competitive Hypothesis Analysis
As such, HM is an alternative to the well-known Competitive Hypothesis Analysis (ACH) method. Of course, someone might want to use both methods, HM for some problems and ACH for others, or as two different frameworks to address the same problem.
HM and ACH have complementary strengths and weaknesses. Basically, HM is based on a hierarchical structure, while ACH is based on a matrix or table structure. Both share the idea that bringing rigor to thinking about hypotheses requires adapting that thinking to explicit external structures (“out of mind”). Any type of structure will have certain advantages, but also certain costs. The expert professional will be able to use the most suitable tool for the task, with knowledge and deep understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the tool.
Arguably, some of HM’s advantages over ACH, particularly its more intuitive character and more attractive display, will lead HM to displace ACH as the default tool for HI in intelligence.
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Bibliographic References
De Miguel, M., “La evaluación de tesis doctorales. Propuesta de un modelo”. Relieve, Revista Electrónica de Investigación y Evaluación Educativa 16, no. 1 (2010): 1-18.
Scarano, E. R. Manual de redacción de escritos de investigación. 1ª ed. Buenos Aires: Macchi, 2004.
Spinak, E. Diccionario enciclopédico de bibliometría, cienciometría e informetría. Caracas: Unesco-CII/II, 1996.
Mapeo de Hipótesis
